Air Quality Modelling

Project Title: Applied Air Quality Modelling and Mitigation Validation for the City of Skopje

Financed by UNDP

Implementing Partner: Faculty of Mechanical Engineering – Skopje

07.11.2025 - 31.03.2026

Budget: MKD 13,948,617

Project Summary:

The project focuses on the development and application of a GIS-based air quality modelling framework for the city of Skopje, with the aim of modelling and validating air pollutant emissions, identifying pollution hot-spots, and proposing measures for reduction of air pollution from residential heating, traffic, and industry.

The activities included collection, processing, validation, and integration of meteorological, traffic, industrial, spatial, and energy-consumption datasets representative for the year 2023. Meteorological data were obtained from the Hydrometeorological Service, traffic activity data from the Traffic Control Center (CUKS) and the Ministry of Interior (MoI), industrial emissions data from Integrated Environmental Permits provided by the Ministry of Environment and Physical Planning (MOEPP) and the City of Skopje, while household heating and energy consumption data were obtained from the State Statistical Office (STAT) and the Spatial Planning Agency (SPA).

Air quality modelling and dispersion analysis were performed using the ADMS-Urban software tool. The modelling framework incorporated GIS-based spatial analysis with integration of geographic coordinates, and elevation data. Within the modelling domain, roads were defined as line sources representing traffic emissions, industrial installations with stacks were defined as point sources, and city districts were defined as area sources associated with residential heating emissions.

The analysis focused on PM_2.5, PM₁₀, and NO₂ as key pollutants associated with the investigated emission sectors. Hourly average pollutant concentrations were modelled and evaluated against measurements from monitoring stations of the State Automatic Ambient Air Quality Monitoring System. Statistical verification and model evaluation included application of regression analysis and calculation of performance indicators such as R², RMSE, MAE, and MoE.

Based on the modelling results and source contribution assessment, different mitigation scenarios and reduction measures were analysed for the transport, residential heating, and industrial sectors. The proposed measures included improvements related to vehicle fleet structure and traffic management, reduction of emissions from biomass-based household heating, and reduction of industrial emissions through implementation of cleaner technologies and improved operational practices.

The project also included active engagement of students through participation in data processing, modelling activities, scenario development, and interpretation of results. As part of the dissemination and educational activities, workshops and seminars were organized involving researchers, experts, institutional representatives, and students, supporting knowledge transfer and discussion on air pollution sources, modelling approaches, mitigation measures, and environmental management strategies.

The following seminars were delivered within the project framework:

• Seminar 1 (18-19.03.2026) - Clean air and sustainable cities: modern scientific and practical approaches to sustainable urban air quality management (international experiences and local challenges)
• Seminar 2 (30-31.03.2026) - From scientific data to practical decisions: strategies for improving air quality in Skopje.

Technical reports, visual dissemination materials, interim progress reports, and methodological documentation were additionally prepared to support future replication of the developed approach in other cities in North Macedonia and the wider region.

Based on the obtained results, the project contributes to development of technically supported mitigation measures and provides a basis for future integrated environmental assessments focused on improvement of air quality and reduction of environmental pressures in the city of Skopje.